Bargaining externalities in a privatization programme

In privatization programmes, the state commonly keeps a minority ownership stake in firms. We provide an explanation based on the externality that privatization of one firm has on the profitability of others. If this externality is negative, as with oligopolistic firms, the government can gain a strategic advantage in bargaining over the sale of one firm if it keeps an ownership share in another. We consider both the simultaneous and the sequential sale of firms. The results apply to the period in which privatization takes place, and are consistent with the delayed sale of minority ownership often observed in practice.     

Reliable Inference in Categorical Regression Analysis for Non‐randomly Coarsened Observations

In most surveys, one is confronted with missing or, more generally, coarse data. Traditional methods dealing with these data require strong, untestable and often doubtful assumptions, for example, coarsening at random. But due to the resulting, potentially severe bias, there is a growing interest in approaches that only include tenable knowledge about the coarsening process, leading to imprecise but reliable results. In this spirit, we study regression analysis with a coarse categorical‐dependent variable and precisely observed categorical covariates. Our (profile) likelihood‐based approach can incorporate weak knowledge about the coarsening process and thus offers a synthesis of traditional methods and cautious strategies refraining from any coarsening assumptions. This also allows a discussion of the uncertainty about the coarsening process, besides sampling uncertainty and model uncertainty. Our procedure is illustrated with data of the panel study ‘Labour market and social security' conducted by the Institute for Employment Research, whose questionnaire design produces coarse data.     

Modeling asymmetric price transmission in the European food market

In this study, we employ a multivariate panel error correction model (PVECM) to investigate asymmetric price transmission among the farm, processor, and retail segments of the European food supply chain for the 2005–2016 period. The results indicate that, in both the long- and short-run, retail prices respond more strongly to processor price increases than decreases and the same occurs for processor prices due to farm price changes. Thus, the findings demonstrate the presence of positive asymmetric price transmission in the European food supply chain. Finally, the results of the present study indicate that the food price pass-through varies greatly across product category and across countries, and that the pass-through to producer prices is greater than that to consumer prices.     

禽流感危机下肉鸡产业市场状态分析*——基于互联网大数据和MS-VAR模型

[目的]为了有效应对禽流感冲击、维持肉鸡产业稳定健康发展。[方法]基于互联网大数据构建了禽流感舆情指数,选取2012年1月至2017年3月周度数据,通过MS-VAR模型分析了禽流感危机下肉鸡市场状态的转换特征以及不同市场状态下产业链价格传导关系。[结果]2012年以来可将肉鸡产业市场状态划分为危机状态和正常状态,肉鸡产业市场在两个市场状态下转换频繁;肉鸡产业危机市场状态和正常市场状态平均持续期分别为4.65周和9.05周;肉鸡市场在区制转移概率上存在明显的非对称特征;肉雏鸡、活鸡和白条鸡价格之间在危机状态下相关性小于正常市场状态下相关性;不同市场状态下肉鸡产业链价格传导存在差异;肉鸡产业市场在危机状态下不稳定程度明显增加。[结论]提出了加大对禽流感疫情的监测以及疫情处理能力,密切关注公众禽流感舆情动态变动情况,做好舆情引导,加强禽流感疫情科学知识的宣传,增强公众对禽流感的认知等对策建议。     

Connectedness and systemic risk spillovers analysis of Chinese sectors based on tail risk network

This paper investigates the systemic risk spillovers and connectedness in the sectoral tail risk network of Chinese stock market, and explores the transmission mechanism of systemic risk spillovers by block models. Based on conditional value at risk (CoVaR) and single index model (SIM) quantile regression technique, we analyse the tail risk connectedness and find that during market crashes, stock market exposes to more systemic risk and more connectedness. Further, the orthogonal pulse function shows that Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of edges has a significant positive effect on systemic risk, but the impact shows a certain lagging feature. Besides, the directional connectedness of sectors shows that systemic risk receivers and transmitters vary across time, and we adopt PageRank index to identify systemically important sector released by utilities and financial sectors. Finally, by block model we find that the tail risk network of Chinese sectors can be divided into four different spillover function blocks. The role of blocks and the spatial spillover transmission path between risk blocks are time-varying. Our results provide useful and positive implications for market participants and policy makers dealing with investment diversification and tracing the paths of risk shock transmission.     

Advocacy and political convergence under preference uncertainty

We study the formation of advocacy groups and how they can impact policy outcomes by revealing information about voters׳ preferences to uninformed political candidates. We conduct a laboratory experiment based on a two-candidate spatial electoral competition setting where the policy preferences of voters are (initially) unknown and change over time. In the control treatment candidates learn about the preferred policy of the median voter through the voting outcome of elections. In the advocacy treatments, voters can organize themselves into advocacy groups in order to reveal their policy preferences. We find that voters often overcome the collective action problem of forming an advocacy group. In fact, we observe the formation of both informative advocacy groups, which convey new information, and uninformative advocacy groups, which do not. Overall, advocacy groups significantly speed up the convergence to the preferred policy of the median voter. However, advocacy does not lead to higher earnings as the gains from faster convergence are offset by the costs of group formation.     

Price and Volatility Transmission and Market Power in the German Fresh Pork Supply Chain

We investigate the relationship between the transmission of price volatility and market power in the German fresh pork supply chain. We use a theoretical model underpinning this relationship followed by an empirical application that uses monthly farm, slaughterhouse and retail pork price data for the period 2000–2011. We examine both the relationships of market power with price level transmission and price volatility transmission in the chain. We use a vector error correction model and least squares regressions to analyse price transmission and price volatility transmissions, respectively. Results show that retail market power limited both types of transmissions. Competition inducing policy measures coupled with measures that support price risk management initiatives of chain actors are suggested.     

对外直接投资逆向技术溢出与全球农业价值链地位提升——基于G20国家的经验研究

中国农业处于全球农业价值链的"微笑曲线"谷底,长期遭受不平等待遇。对农产品出口技术复杂度所作的测算显示,相对于G20国家而言,中国农业在全球农业价值链地位并不高,且与最高国家差距呈现逐渐扩大的趋势。对G20国家农业OFDI数据所作的面板回归表明,农业OFDI存在溢出效应,能够提升母国农业出口贸易品技术含量,且其提升需要"学习过程"。此外,农业FDI对出口贸易品技术含量的影响具有滞后性。据此,研究认为,中国为了实现全球农业价值链地位的攀升,应该进一步鼓励农业企业"走出去";改善农业投资环境,为外商直接投资创造条件;提高对外开放程度,为农业发展提供支持;推动金融体制改革,提高国内金融服务发展程度。     

输变电工程质量管理探析

输变电工程项目属于资金技术密集型项目,同时,项目施工的工程环境相对较差。如何保证项目的合理实施,是对输变电工程项目管理的重要考验。本文针对相关的质量风险体系和层次方法进行阐述,供同行参考。     

新粤浙管道工程管材采购质量控制措施与建议

针对新粤浙管道工程的特点,在对川气东送管道工程的管材采购经验进行总结的基础上,从管材标准制定、供应商管理、全过程质量控制及科学管理的角度,对采购质量控制问题进行了探讨,并提出了加强管材采购质量控制的措施和建议。